Original Post
Well, barring a major and unexpected turn of events, the Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (
here's a great site with the breakdown of where the money is going) will be signed into law sometime early this week by President Obama. Unfortunately, the reality of the stimulus package is that while it it
might bring some short-term relief to the state of our economy, the long-term ramifications of something this enormous and so hastily thrown together (read: a liberal wish list of things they want while they know they can get the money) are indeed frightening.
What has upset me the most, along with many other Americans I would imagine, is that the president paraded around the country scaring us all into thinking that we had no other choice. He got onto primetime TV and said that another depression was imminent if we chose to do nothing. But here's the deal. I wasn't alive in the 1930's, but we do have data and facts from that time period that allow us a glimpse into the reality of what a depression really was like. And folks, let's just say that we're nowhere near a depression. Not by a long shot.
The
Wall Street Journal had a
great piece today comparing three different economic downturns. The Great Depression, the recession of 1981-1982, and the recession we're in today. Here's how they broke it down:
JOB LOSSES
Last Year (2008): 3.4 million (2.2% of the work force)
October 1981-November 1982: 2.4 million jobs (2.2% of the work force)
The job losses were fewer in the 1981-1982 recession, but the work force was smaller than it is today. Thus the reason for the same percentage.
Job losses during the Great Depression (by percentage of total labor force who lost jobs) 1930: 4.8% / 1931: 6.5% / 1932: 7.1%
U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT
As of January 2009: 7.6%
At it's peak in 1982: 10.8%
At it's peak in 1932: 25.2%
Call me crazy, but last month's 7.6% doesn't even compare to 1982's numbers, let alone the numbers in 1932 during the height of the Great Depression.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP)
2008: The GDP actually rose last year (despite a really bad 4th quarter); however, the
Congressional Budget Office predicts a decline of 2% in 2009.
1982: Declined by 1.9%
1932: Declined by 13%
1931: Declined by 8%
1930: Declined by 9%
Once again, it is obvious that the numbers from today are comparable to the 1981-1982 recession, but they are nowhere close to what they were during the Great Depression. OTHER NUMBERS
Auto Production
2008: Declined by 25%
1932: Declined by 90%
Bank Failures
2008: 24
1987-1988: 3,000
1933: 10,000
24 compared to 3,000 or 10,000. Seriously??
It is clear from these numbers that, while the current recession is bad - and there's no denying that there are people who are hurting from the downturn - there just is no comparsion to the Great Depression. If anything, the recession of 1981-1982 is more of a bellwether to the current recession than anything else, ESPECIALLY the Great Depression.
What Obama is doing is fearmongering. He and the media that worship and adore him have been able to scare hard-working Americans into a panicked frenzy. By using comparisons of our current struggle to the Great Depression, Obama has not only thrown historical accuracy out the window, he has created a political bombshell that is disguised as a necessary component to our economic recovery. Without it, he says, America may never recover.
It may sound good and noble to those that think that Obama can do no wrong, but the truth is that this "recovery" will be paid for dearly by our kids and grandkids.
Posts
